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Dr Agus Santoso

Dr Agus Santoso

Senior Research Associate
Science
Climate Change Research Centre

Agus Santoso is a senior research associate at the Climate Change Research Centre. He was awarded a PhD in 2006 by the UNSW School of Mathematics and Statistics. His research aims to unravel the mechanisms that govern climate variability on seasonal to centennial time scales. Research interests include tropical climate variability and global thermohaline circulation, in particular the dynamics and future projections of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Many drought and flood episodes in Australia have been attributed to ENSO and IOD. Dr Santosois an associate investigator at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and is an editor for the Journal of Climate of the American Meteorological Society. He has served in the World Climate Research Programme CLIVAR Pacific Regional Panel and was one of project leaders at the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR; July 2017- June 2022).
Phone
61 2 9385 8952
E-mail
a.santoso@unsw.edu.au
  • Books | 2020
    McPhaden MJ; Santoso A; Cai W, 2020, PREFACE,
  • Book Chapters | 2020
    Cai W; Santoso A; Wang G; Wu L; Collins M; Lengaigne M; Power S; Timmermann A, 2020, 'ENSO Response to Greenhouse Forcing', in McPhaden M; Santoso A; Cai W (ed.), El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union, pp. 289 - 307,
    Book Chapters | 2020
    Karamperidou C; Stuecker M; Timmermann A; Yun K-S; Lee S-S; Jin F-F; Santoso A; McPhaden M; Cai W, 2020, 'ENSO in a Changing Climate: Challenges, Paleo‐Perspectives, and Outlook', in McPhaden M; Cai W; Santoso A (ed.), El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union, pp. 471 - 484,
    Book Chapters | 2020
    McPhaden M; Santoso A; Cai W, 2020, 'Introduction to El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate', in McPhaden M; Santoso A; Cai W (ed.), El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union, pp. 1 - 19,
  • Edited Books | 2020
    McPhaden M; Santoso A; Cai W, (eds.), 2020, El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union,
  • Journal articles | 2024
    Qiu W; Collins M; Scaife AA; Santoso A, 2024, 'Tropical Pacific trends explain the discrepancy between observed and modelled rainfall change over the Americas', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7,
    Journal articles | 2024
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A; Abram N; Ng B; Yang K; Geng T; Doi T; Du Y; Izumo T; Ashok K; Li J; Li T; McKenna S; Sun S; Tozuka T; Zheng X; Liu Y; Wu L; Jia F; Hu S; Li X, 2024, 'The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 5, pp. 588 - 604,
    Journal articles | 2024
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A; Yang K, 2024, 'Southern Ocean heat buffer constrained by present-day ENSO teleconnection', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7,
    Journal articles | 2024
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A, 2024, 'Variability of the Indian Ocean Dipolepost-2100reverses to a reductiondespite persistent global warming', Nature Communications, 15,
    Journal articles | 2024
    Wang G; Santoso A, 2024, 'Multi-year La Niña frequency tied to southward tropical Pacific wind shift', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7,
    Journal articles | 2023
    An SI; Park HJ; Kim SK; Cai W; Santoso A; Kim D; Kug JS, 2023, 'Main drivers of Indian Ocean Dipole asymmetry revealed by a simple IOD model', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Cai W; Gao L; Luo Y; Li X; Zheng X; Zhang X; Cheng X; Jia F; Purich A; Santoso A; Du Y; Holland DM; Shi JR; Xiang B; Xie SP, 2023, 'Southern Ocean warming and its climatic impacts', Science Bulletin, 68, pp. 946 - 960,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Cai W; Jia F; Li S; Purich A; Wang G; Wu L; Gan B; Santoso A; Geng T; Ng B; Yang Y; Ferreira D; Meehl GA; McPhaden MJ, 2023, 'Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes', Nature Climate Change, 13, pp. 235 - 239,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Cai W; Ng B; Geng T; Jia F; Wu L; Wang G; Liu Y; Gan B; Yang K; Santoso A; Lin X; Li Z; Liu Y; Yang Y; Jin FF; Collins M; McPhaden MJ, 2023, 'Anthropogenic impacts on twentieth-century ENSO variability changes', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 4, pp. 407 - 418,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Capotondi A; McGregor S; McPhaden MJ; Cravatte S; Holbrook NJ; Imada Y; Sanchez SC; Sprintall J; Stuecker MF; Ummenhofer CC; Zeller M; Farneti R; Graffino G; Hu S; Karnauskas KB; Kosaka Y; Kucharski F; Mayer M; Qiu B; Santoso A; Taschetto AS; Wang F; Zhang X; Holmes RM; Luo JJ; Maher N; Martinez-Villalobos C; Meehl GA; Naha R; Schneider N; Stevenson S; Sullivan A; van Rensch P; Xu T, 2023, 'Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 4, pp. 754 - 769,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Chung C; Boschat G; Taschetto A; Narsey S; McGregor S; Santoso A; Delage F, 2023, 'Evaluation of seasonal teleconnections to remote drivers of Australian rainfall in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models', Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 73, pp. 219 - 261,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Gillett ZE; Taschetto AS; Holgate CM; Santoso A, 2023, 'Linking ENSO to Synoptic Weather Systems in Eastern Australia', Geophysical Research Letters, 50,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Orihuela-Pinto B; Santoso A; England MH; Taschetto AS, 2023, 'Coupled Feedbacks From the Tropical Pacific to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation', Geophysical Research Letters, 50,
    Journal articles | 2023
    Zhang X; Santoso A; Mochizuki T; Chakravorty S; Johnson ZF, 2023, 'Editorial: Early career scientists’ contributions to tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics and its interaction on mid-latitude weather and climate: features, mechanisms, and prediction', Frontiers in Earth Science, 11,
    Journal articles | 2023
    2023, 'Editorial: Dynamics and impacts of tropical climate variability: Understanding trends and future projections', Frontiers in Climate, 5,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Bi D; Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A; Sullivan A; Ng B; Jia F, 2022, 'Improved Simulation of ENSO Variability Through Feedback From the Equatorial Atlantic in a Pacemaker Experiment', Geophysical Research Letters, 49,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Cai W; Ng B; Wang G; Santoso A; Wu L; Yang K, 2022, 'Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios', Nature Climate Change, 12, pp. 228 - 231,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Geng T; Cai W; Wu L; Santoso A; Wang G; Jing Z; Gan B; Yang Y; Li S; Wang S; Chen Z; McPhaden MJ, 2022, 'Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate', Nature Communications, 13, pp. 6616,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Holgate C; Evans JP; Taschetto AS; Gupta AS; Santoso A, 2022, 'The Impact of Interacting Climate Modes on East Australian Precipitation Moisture Sources', Journal of Climate, 35, pp. 3147 - 3159,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Jeong YC; Yeh SW; Lim YK; Santoso A; Wang G, 2022, 'Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation', npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5, pp. 56,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Orihuela-Pinto B; Santoso A; England MH; Taschetto AS; Orihuela Pinto L, 2022, 'Reduced ENSO Variability due to a Collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation', Journal of Climate, 35, pp. 5307 - 5320,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Pontes GM; Taschetto AS; Sen Gupta A; Santoso A; Wainer I; Haywood AM; Chan WL; Abe-Ouchi A; Stepanek C; Lohmann G; Hunter SJ; Tindall JC; Chandler MA; Sohl LE; Peltier WR; Chandan D; Kamae Y; Nisancioglu KH; Zhang Z; Contoux C; Tan N; Zhang Q; Otto-Bliesner BL; Brady EC; Feng R; von der Heydt AS; Baatsen MLJ; Oldeman AM, 2022, 'Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift', Nature Geoscience, 15, pp. 726 - 734,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Santoso A; England MH; Kajtar JB; Cai W, 2022, 'Indonesian Throughflow Variability and Linkage to ENSO and IOD in an Ensemble of CMIP5 Models', Journal of Climate, 35, pp. 3161 - 3178,
    Journal articles | 2022
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A; Wu L; Fyfe JC; Yeh S-W; Ng B; Yang K; McPhaden MJ, 2022, 'Future Southern Ocean warming linked to projected ENSO variability', Nature Climate Change, 12, pp. 649 - 654,
    Journal articles | 2022
    2022, 'Phase Coherence Between Surrounding Oceans Enhances Precipitation Shortages in Northeast Brazil', Geophysical Research Letters, 49,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Cai W; Ng B; Geng T; Wu L; Santoso A; McPhaden MJ, 2021, 'Erratum: Addendum: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming (Nature (2020) 585 7823 (68-73))', Nature, 591, pp. E14 - E15,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Cai W; Santoso A; Collins M; Dewitte B; Karamperidou C; Kug JS; Lengaigne M; McPhaden MJ; Stuecker MF; Taschetto AS; Timmermann A; Wu L; Yeh SW; Wang G; Ng B; Jia F; Yang Y; Ying J; Zheng XT; Bayr T; Brown JR; Capotondi A; Cobb KM; Gan B; Geng T; Ham YG; Jin FF; Jo HS; Li X; Lin X; McGregor S; Park JH; Stein K; Yang K; Zhang L; Zhong W, 2021, 'Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, pp. 628 - 644,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Cai W; Yang K; Wu L; Huang G; Santoso A; Ng B; Wang G; Yamagata T, 2021, 'Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming', Nature Climate Change, 11, pp. 27 - 32,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Kajtar JB; Santoso A; Collins M; Taschetto AS; England MH; Frankcombe LM, 2021, 'CMIP5 Intermodel Relationships in the Baseline Southern Ocean Climate System and With Future Projections', Earth's Future, 9,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Pontes G; Taschetto A; Gupta AS; Santoso A; Wainer I; Haywood A; Chan W-L; Abe-Ouchi A; Stepanek C; Lohmann G; Hunter S; Tindall J; Chandler M; Sohl L; Peltier D; Chandan D; Kamae Y; Nisancioglu K; Zhang Z; Contoux C; Tan N; Zhang Q; Otto-Bliesner B; Brady E; Feng R; Heydt AVD; Baatsen M; Oldemann A, 2021, 'Northward ITCZ shift drives reduced ENSO activity in the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period', ,
    Journal articles | 2021
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A, 2021, 'Simulated Thermocline Tilt Over the Tropical Indian Ocean and Its Influence on Future Sea Surface Temperature Variability', Geophysical Research Letters, 48,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Cai W; McPhaden MJ; Grimm AM; Rodrigues RR; Taschetto AS; Garreaud RD; Dewitte B; Poveda G; Ham YG; Santoso A; Ng B; Anderson W; Wang G; Geng T; Jo HS; Marengo JA; Alves LM; Osman M; Li S; Wu L; Karamperidou C; Takahashi K; Vera C, 2020, 'Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on South America', Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 1, pp. 215 - 231,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Cai W; Ng B; Geng T; Wu L; Santoso A; McPhaden MJ, 2020, 'Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming', Nature, 585, pp. 68 - 73,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Cai W; Ng B; Geng T; Wu L; Santoso A; McPhaden MJ, 2020, 'Publisher Correction: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming (Nature, (2020), 585, 7823, (68-73), 10.1038/s41586-020-2641-x)', Nature, 588, pp. E3,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Dhame S; Taschetto AS; Santoso A; Meissner KJ, 2020, 'Indian Ocean warming modulates global atmospheric circulation trends', Climate Dynamics, 55, pp. 2053 - 2073,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Kajtar JB; Santoso A; Collins M; Taschetto AS; England MH; Frankcombe LM, 2020, 'Intermodel CMIP5 relationships in the baseline Southern Ocean climate system and with future projections', ,
    Journal articles | 2020
    McKenna S; Santoso A; Gupta AS; Taschetto AS; Cai W, 2020, 'Indian Ocean Dipole in CMIP5 and CMIP6: characteristics, biases, and links to ENSO', Scientific Reports, 10, pp. 11500,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A, 2020, 'Stronger increase in the frequency of extreme convective than extreme warm El Niño events under greenhouse warming', Journal of Climate, 33, pp. 675 - 690,
    Journal articles | 2020
    Wang G; Cai W; Yang K; Santoso A; Yamagata T, 2020, 'A Unique Feature of the 2019 Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Event', Geophysical Research Letters, 47,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Bordbar MH; England MH; Sen Gupta A; Santoso A; Taschetto AS; Martin T; Park W; Latif M, 2019, 'Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability', Nature Communications, 10, pp. 1990,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Cai W; Wu L; Lengaigne M; Li T; McGregor S; Kug JS; Yu JY; Stuecker MF; Santoso A; Li X; Ham YG; Chikamoto Y; Ng B; McPhaden MJ; Du Y; Dommenget D; Jia F; Kajtar JB; Keenlyside N; Lin X; Luo JJ; Martín-Rey M; Ruprich-Robert Y; Wang G; Xie SP; Yang Y; Kang SM; Choi JY; Gan B; Kim GI; Kim CE; Kim S; Kim JH; Chang P, 2019, 'Pantropical climate interactions', Science, 363, pp. 944 - +,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Holmes RM; McGregor S; Santoso A; England MH, 2019, 'Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity', Climate Dynamics, 52, pp. 1837 - 1855,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Makarim S; Sprintall J; Liu Z; Yu W; Santoso A; Yan XH; Susanto RD, 2019, 'Previously unidentified Indonesian Throughflow pathways and freshening in the Indian Ocean during recent decades', Scientific Reports, 9, pp. 7364,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Santoso A; Hendon H; Watkins A; Power S; Dommenget D; England MH; Frankcombe L; Holbrook NJ; Holmes R; Hope P; Lim EP; Luo JJ; McGregor S; Neske S; Nguyen H; Pepler A; Rashid H; Gupta AS; Taschetto AS; Wang G; Abellán E; Sullivan A; Huguenin MF; Gamble F; Delage F; Abellan Villardon E; Huguenin-Virchaux M, 2019, 'Dynamics and predictability of El Niño-Southern oscillation: An Australian perspective on progress and challenges', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, pp. 403 - 420,
    Journal articles | 2019
    Timmermann A; An SI; Kug JS; Jin FF; Cai W; Capotondi A; Cobb KM; Lengaigne M; McPhaden MJ; Stuecker MF; Stein K; Wittenberg AT; Yun KS; Bayr T; Chen HC; Chikamoto Y; Dewitte B; Dommenget D; Grothe P; Guilyardi E; Ham YG; Hayashi M; Ineson S; Kang D; Kim S; Kim WM; Lee JY; Li T; Luo JJ; McGregor S; Planton Y; Power S; Rashid H; Ren HL; Santoso A; Takahashi K; Todd A; Wang G; Wang G; Xie R; Yang WH; Yeh SW; Yoon J; Zeller E; Zhang X, 2019, 'Author Correction: El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity (Nature, (2018), 559, 7715, (535-545), 10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6)', Nature, 567, pp. E3,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Abellán E; McGregor S; England MH; Santoso A, 2018, 'Distinctive role of ocean advection anomalies in the development of the extreme 2015–16 El Niño', Climate Dynamics, 51, pp. 2191 - 2208,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Cai W; Wang G; Dewitte B; Wu L; Santoso A; Takahashi K; Yang Y; Carréric A; McPhaden MJ, 2018, 'Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming', Nature, 564, pp. 201 - 206,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Cai W; Wang G; Gan B; Wu L; Santoso A; Lin X; Chen Z; Jia F; Yamagata T, 2018, 'Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5°C warming', Nature Communications, 9, pp. 1419,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Herold N; Santoso A, 2018, 'Indian Ocean warming during peak El Niño cools surrounding land masses', Climate Dynamics, 51, pp. 2097 - 2112,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Kajtar JB; Santoso A; McGregor S; England MH; Baillie Z, 2018, 'Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias', Climate Dynamics, 50, pp. 1471 - 1484,
    Journal articles | 2018
    Timmermann A; An SI; Kug JS; Jin FF; Cai W; Capotondi A; Cobb K; Lengaigne M; McPhaden MJ; Stuecker MF; Stein K; Wittenberg AT; Yun KS; Bayr T; Chen HC; Chikamoto Y; Dewitte B; Dommenget D; Grothe P; Guilyardi E; Ham YG; Hayashi M; Ineson S; Kang D; Kim S; Kim WM; Lee JY; Li T; Luo JJ; McGregor S; Planton Y; Power S; Rashid H; Ren HL; Santoso A; Takahashi K; Todd A; Wang G; Wang G; Xie R; Yang WH; Yeh SW; Yoon J; Zeller E; Zhang X, 2018, 'El Niño–Southern Oscillation complexity', Nature, 559, pp. 535 - 545,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Cai W; Wang G; Santoso A; Lin X; Wu L, 2017, 'Definition of Extreme El Niño and Its Impact on Projected Increase in Extreme El Niño Frequency', Geophysical Research Letters, 44, pp. 11 - 190,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Chung CTY; Power SB; Santoso A; Wang G, 2017, 'Multiyear variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 4413 - 4427,
    Journal articles | 2017
    England MH; Hutchinson DK; Santoso A; Sijp WP, 2017, 'Ice-atmosphere feedbacks dominate the response of the climate system to drake passage closure', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 5775 - 5790,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Kajtar JB; Santoso A; England MH; Cai W, 2017, 'Tropical climate variability: interactions across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans', Climate Dynamics, 48, pp. 2173 - 2190,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Santoso A; Mcphaden MJ; Cai W, 2017, 'The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño', Reviews of Geophysics, 55, pp. 1079 - 1129,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Wang G; Cai W; Gan B; Wu L; Santoso A; Lin X; Chen Z; McPhaden MJ, 2017, 'Continued increase of extreme El Ninõ frequency long after 1.5 C warming stabilization', Nature Climate Change, 7, pp. 568 - 572,
    Journal articles | 2017
    Wang G; Cai W; Santoso A, 2017, 'Assessing the impact of model biases on the projected increase in frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean dipole events', Journal of Climate, 30, pp. 2757 - 2767,
    Journal articles | 2016
    Sen Gupta A; McGregor S; Van Sebille E; Ganachaud A; Brown JN; Santoso A, 2016, 'Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes', Geophysical Research Letters, 43, pp. 1669 - 1678,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Aiken CM; Santoso A; McGregor S; England MH, 2015, 'Optimal forcing of ENSO either side of the 1970’s climate shift and its implications for predictability', Climate Dynamics, 45, pp. 47 - 65,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Boucharel J; Timmermann A; Santoso A; England MH; Jin FF; Balmaseda MA, 2015, 'A surface layer variance heat budget for ENSO', Geophysical Research Letters, 42, pp. 3529 - 3537,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Cai W; Santoso A; Wang G; Yeh SW; An SI; Cobb KM; Collins M; Guilyardi E; Jin FF; Kug JS; Lengaigne M; Mcphaden MJ; Takahashi K; Timmermann A; Vecchi G; Watanabe M; Wu L, 2015, 'ENSO and greenhouse warming', Nature Climate Change, 5, pp. 849 - 859,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Cai W; Wang G; Santoso A; Mcphaden MJ; Wu L; Jin FF; Timmermann A; Collins M; Vecchi G; Lengaigne M; England MH; Dommenget D; Takahashi K; Guilyardi E, 2015, 'Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming', Nature Climate Change, 5, pp. 132 - 137,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Kajtar JB; Santoso A; England MH; Cai W, 2015, 'Indo-pacific climate interactions in the absence of an Indonesian throughflow', Journal of Climate, 28, pp. 5017 - 5029,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Ng B; Cai W; Walsh K; Santoso A, 2015, 'Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events', Scientific Reports, 5,
    Journal articles | 2015
    Santoso A; Cai W; Collins M; McPhaden M; Jin F-F; Guilyardi E; Vecchi G; Dommenget D; Wang G, 2015, 'ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnections, and Impacts', Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, pp. 150904101253006 - 150904101253006,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Borlace S; Santoso A; Cai W; Collins M, 2014, 'Extreme swings of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and the different types of El Niño events', Geophysical Research Letters, 41, pp. 4695 - 4703,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Cai W; Borlace S; Lengaigne M; Van Rensch P; Collins M; Vecchi G; Timmermann A; Santoso A; Mcphaden MJ; Wu L; England MH; Wang G; Guilyardi E; Jin FF, 2014, 'Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming', Nature Climate Change, 4, pp. 111 - 116,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Cai W; Santoso A; et al. , 2014, 'Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.', Nature, 510, pp. 254 - 258,
    Journal articles | 2014
    England MH; Mcgregor S; Spence P; Meehl GA; Timmermann A; Cai W; Gupta AS; Mcphaden MJ; Purich A; Santoso A; Spence P, 2014, 'Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus', Nature Climate Change, 4, pp. 222 - 227,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Kim ST; Cai W; Jin FF; Santoso A; Wu L; Guilyardi E; An SI, 2014, 'Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming', Nature Climate Change, 4, pp. 786 - 790,
    Journal articles | 2014
    McGregor S; Spence P; Schwarzkopf FU; England MH; Santoso A; Kessler WS; Timmermann A; Böning CW; Spence P, 2014, 'ENSO-driven interhemispheric Pacific mass transports', Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119, pp. 6221 - 6237,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Taschetto AS; Gupta AS; Jourdain NC; Santoso A; Ummenhofer CC; England MH, 2014, 'Cold tongue and warm pool ENSO Events in CMIP5: Mean state and future projections', Journal of Climate, 27, pp. 2861 - 2885,
    Journal articles | 2014
    Van Sebille E; Sprintall J; Schwarzkopf FU; Sen Gupta A; Santoso A; England MH; Biastoch A; Böning CW, 2014, 'Pacific-to-Indian Ocean connectivity: Tasman leakage, Indonesian Throughflow, and the role of ENSO', Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119, pp. 1365 - 1382,
    Journal articles | 2014
    2014, 'Are we heading for a worrying Super El Niño?', The Conversation,
    Journal articles | 2013
    Aiken CM; Santoso A; McGregor S; England MH, 2013, 'The 1970's shift in ENSO dynamics: A linear inverse model perspective', Geophysical Research Letters, 40, pp. 1612 - 1617,
    Journal articles | 2013
    Borlace S; Cai W; Santoso A, 2013, 'Multidecadal ENSO amplitude variability in a 1000-yr simulation of a coupled global climate model: Implications for observed ENSO variability', Journal of Climate, 26, pp. 9399 - 9407,
    Journal articles | 2013
    Hutchinson D; England MH; Santoso A; Hogg A, 2013, 'Interhemispheric asymmetry in transient global warming: The role of the Drake Passage', Geophysical Research Letters, 40, pp. 1587 - 1593,
    Journal articles | 2013
    McGregor S; Ramesh N; Spence P; England MH; Mcphaden M; Santoso A; Spence P, 2013, 'Meridional movement of wind anomalies during ENSO events and their role in event termination', Geophysical Research Letters, 40, pp. 1 - 6,
    Journal articles | 2013
    Santoso A; McGregor S; Jin FF; Cai W; England MH; An SI; McPhaden MJ; Guilyardi E, 2013, 'Late-twentieth-century emergence of the El Niño propagation asymmetry and future projections', Nature, 504, pp. 126 - 130,
    Journal articles | 2012
    Pui ; Sharma A; Santoso A; Westra SP, 2012, 'Impact of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode on daily to sub-daily rainfall characteristics in East Australia.', Monthly Weather Review, 140, pp. 1665 - 1682,
    Journal articles | 2012
    Santoso A; England MH; Cai W, 2012, 'Impact of Indo-Pacific feedback interactions on ENSO dynamics diagnosed using ensemble climate simulations', Journal of Climate, 25, pp. 7743 - 7763,
    Journal articles | 2011
    Santoso A; Cai W; England MH; Phipps SJ, 2011, 'The role of the Indonesian throughflow on ENSO dynamics in a coupled climate model', Journal of Climate, 24, pp. 585 - 601,
    Journal articles | 2010
    Santoso A; Sen Gupta AR; England MH, 2010, 'Genesis of Indian Ocean mixed layer temperature anomalies: a heat budget analysis', Journal of Climate, 23, pp. 5375 - 5403,
    Journal articles | 2009
    Hill KJ; Santoso A; England MH, 2009, 'Interannual Tasmanian rainfall variability associated with large-scale climate modes', Journal of Climate, 22, pp. 4383 - 4397
    Journal articles | 2009
    Sen Gupta AR; Santoso A; Taschetto AS; Ummenhofer CC; Trevena J; England MH, 2009, 'Projected changes to the southern hemisphere ocean and sea ice in the IPCC AR4 climate models', Journal of Climate, 22, pp. 3047 - 3078
    Journal articles | 2008
    Santoso A; England MH, 2008, 'Antarctic Bottom Water variability in a coupled climate model', Journal of Climate, 38, pp. 1870 - 1893,
    Journal articles | 2006
    England MH; Ummenhofer CC; Santoso A, 2006, 'Indian Ocean variability linked to interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia', CLIVAR Exchanges, 11, pp. 28
    Journal articles | 2006
    England MH; Ummenhofer CC; Santoso A, 2006, 'Interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia linked to Indian Ocean climate variability', Journal of Climate, 19, pp. 1948 - 1969,
    Journal articles | 2006
    Santoso A; England MH; Hirst AC, 2006, 'Circumpolar deep water circulation and variability in a coupled climate model', Journal of Physical Oceanography, 36, pp. 1523 - 1552,
    Journal articles | 2004
    Santoso A; England MH, 2004, 'Antarctic intermediate water circulation and variability in a coupledclimate model', Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34, pp. 2160 - 2179
  • Other | 2022
    2022, The east coast rain seems endless. Where on Earth is all the water coming from?, ,
    Other | 2021
    2021, Back so soon, La Niña? Here’s why we’re copping two soggy summers in a row, ,
    Other | 2020
    National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (ed.), 2020, ASYMMETRY AND DIVERSITY IN THE PATTERN, AMPLITUDE AND DURATION OF EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA, ,
    Other | 2019
    McPhaden MJ; Santoso A; Cai W, 2019, Understanding ENSO in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union (AGU),
    Other | 2015
    Cai W; Santoso A; Wang G, 2015, 2015-16 is Shaping up to deliver a rollercoaster from strong El Nino to La Nina, ,
    Other | 2015
    Santoso A; Taschetto A; England MH; McGregor S, 2015, The rise and rise of the 2015 El Niño, ,
    Other | 2015
    2015, Dealing with Climate Change: Tropical Oceanography research in Australia, National Marine Science Planning White Papers, https://www.marinescience.net.au/publications-resources/, ,
    Other | 2014
    Santoso A; Cai W, 2014, Drought in store as El Niño’s western cousin to grow stronger, ,
    Other | 2014
    Santoso A; McGregor S, 2014, Are we heading for a worrying Super El Niño?, ,
    Other | 2014
    Santoso A, 2014, Don’t dismiss a 2014 ‘super’ El Niño just yet, The Conversation, ,
  • Media | 2020
    McPhaden M; Santoso A; Cai W, 2020, Advancing Knowledge of ENSO in a Changing Climate, American Geophysical Union (AGU),
    Media | 2018
    2018, Learning from an Extreme El Niño, ,

Associate Investigator (July 2017 – present), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

Project co-leader (July 2017 – June 2022), Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO, Hobart

Associate Investigator (January 2013 – July 2018), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Member, CLIVAR Pacific Panel (January 2015 – December 2017), CLIVAR Tropical Pacific decadal variability working group (January 2020 – present)

Visiting scientist, CSIRO adjunct science leader (September 2014 - July 2022); CSIRO (February 2008, February 2009, February 2010, February 2011, April 2012, November 2012, September 2022-present); Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris, 21-25 May 2012); Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia, 10-14 April 2017)

Guest lecturer,for Marine Science class (Oct 2014, UNSW). ‘Representation of modes of variability in climate models: a focus on ENSO',ARC Centre of Excellence Winter School, UNSW (June 17-21, 2013).Air-sea interactions master and undergraduate classes (April 2017, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia). Air-sea interaction course (SB6127), ‘Understanding El Niño Southern Oscillation’, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia (9 November 2020, virtual). ‘ENSO in a Changing Climate’, 3rd Summer School on Theory, Mechanisms and Hierarchical Modeling of Climate Dynamics: Tropical Oceans, ENSO and their teleconnections (18-29 July 2022, An ICTP Hybrid Meeting, Trieste Italy).

Coordinator of national marine science sub-theme white paper: ‘Dealing with Climate Change: Tropical Oceanography Research in Australia’, (https://www.marinescience.net.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Climate-change-Tropical-Oceanography.pdf).

Conference sessions convener/chair, ocean session at AOGS 2015 (Singapore), 2 sessions at AMOS 2015 (Brisbane), MSAT 2017 (Bali), AMOS 2018 (Sydney), 2 sessions at AMOS 2019 (Darwin), 2 sessions at AMOS 2020 (Fremantle),AGU Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual), 2 sessions at AMOS 2021 (virtual), 2 sessions at ICSHMO 2022 (virtual), 1 session at AMOS 2022 (Adelaide)

Meeting organiser, ENSO Workshop Australia 2015: ‘ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnection and Impacts’, UNSW, Sydney 4-6 Feb;ENSO Dynamics Workshop, UNSW, Sydney 20-21 Nov 2017;CSHOR ENSO Science Symposium, CSIRO, Hobart 29-31 Jan 2019, inc. book project meeting (1-2 Feb 2019);ENSO Impact on South America Workshop, UNSW, Sydney 25-27 Jun 2019

Editor(January 2021 – present), Journal of Climate

Associate editor Frontiers in Climate (Predictions and Projections)(March 2021 – present),Journal of Climate(August 2016 – December 2020)

Book editor, Michael J. McPhaden, Agus Santoso, Wenju Cai (Eds.), 21 chapters, 528 pages, AGU Monograph, ISBN: 978-1-119-54812-6.

Editorial board member, Journal of Science & Technology Indonesia

Editor, PeerJ

Guest editor, ENSO Special Issue in Atmosphere

Reviewer for: Journal articles [Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, J. Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Atmospheric Science Letters, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, BAMS, J. Climate, Climate Dynamics, Climatic Change, Climate of the Past, Communications Earth &Environment, Current Climate Change Reports, Deep-Sea Research Part I, Deep-Sea Research Part II, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, Ecological Economics, Environmental Research Letters, EOS, Frontiers in Climate, Geophysical Research Letters, Int. J. Climatology, J. Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), J. Geophysical Research (Oceans), Global and Planetary Change, Nature, Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, NPJ, J. Oceanography, Ocean Science, J. Phys. Oceanography, PLOS One, Scientific Reports, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Weather and Forecasting], book chapter [Climate Alert], and research funding proposals [ARC, NSF, NOAA CVP, DFG], book proposals [AGU Monograph]

Invited talks:

  • Future Projections of Indo-Pacific Climate Giants: ENSO and IOD, 2nd International Seminar on Earth Sciences and Technology (ISEST), Bandung, 7-8 March 2023 (keynote)

  • ENSO, IOD, and Indonesian Throughflow in CMIP models. 3rd NPOCE webinar on Roles of Western Pacific Ocean Circulation Variability in Warm Pool, 30 August 2022
  • 2020-2022 La Niña and ENSO Future Projections. NESP Webinar: There and back again: the impacts of back-to-back El Niño and La Niña over the last 15 years, 18 June 2022
  • ENSO, IOD, and the Indonesian Throughflow: interactions and future projections. NOAA/AOML seminar series, 21 April 2022
  • El Niño Southern Oscillation in a warming climate. Leibniz-Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde (IOW) Physical Oceanography Seminar, 21 December 2021
  • ENSO and IOD in climate models and implications for future projections. 3rd International Conference on Maritime Sciences and Advanced Technology (MSAT), 5-6 August 2021
  • Understanding Extreme ENSO Processes and Implications for Future Projections. The Oceans and Climate: Variations from Small to Global Scales,10th International Workshop on Tropical Marine Environmental Changes, 24-25 November 2019, Guangzhou, China
  • El Niño Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming, Sydney DCO Workshop: Carbon Down Under, 24-26 July 2019, Sydney University, Australia
  • El Niño Southern Oscillation: Extremes, teleconnection, and impact. South China Sea Two-Island Monsoon Experiment (SCSTIMX), 25-26 June 2018, National Taiwan University, Taipei
  • The Indonesian seas and Indo-Pacific climate variability, International Symposium on Banda Sea Ecosystem, 23 October 2017, Center for Deep-Sea Research, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia
  • Indo-Pacific climate variability and cross-basin interactions, Climate Variability and Air-Sea Interaction Workshop, 12-13 October 2017, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  • Indo-Pacific climate variabilityand its response to greenhouse warming”, to the 1st InternationalMSATConference “Ocean Science and Technology Toward a Global Maritime Axis”, Bali, Indonesia on 3–5 August 2017
  • Increased frequency of ENSO extremes under greenhouse warming. EGU General Assembly 2015, Vienna, Austria
  • Cause for opposite propagation direction between El Niño and La Niña temperature anomalies. EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, Austria

Industry presentations (invited):

  • Swiss Re Climate TEDs, virtual 28 September 2022,Presented a webinar titled ‘The rise of the 3 headed dog’
  • Swiss Re seminar, Sydney, 29 October 2019,Co-presenter on ‘A fiercer bite: How will the '3 headed dog' evolve with climate change - Outlook on financial risks’
  • Aerial Firefighting Asia Pacific, Adelaide, 5-6 September 2016,Presented a keynote on ‘El Niño in the Asia Pacific Rim’
  • 8th Asia Sustainable Oil Palm Summit, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 4-5 August 2016,Presented: ‘El Niño and Global Warming as it impacts on agriculture like palm oil’
  • ICOPE 2016 “Sustainable Palm Oil and Climate Change: The Way Forward Through Mitigation and Adaptation”, Bali, 16-18 March 2016, presented 30-minute presentation: El Niño: dynamics, impacts, and future projections.
  • General Insurance Seminar ‘Insuring Tomorrow’, Sydney, 17-18 November 2014,Andrews, T., A. Pui, A. Santoso: Recent Developments in Predicting El Niño and the Implications for Insurers. General Insurance Seminar ‘Insuring Tomorrow’, Sydney, 17-18 November 2014 () (invited co-presenter)
  • Insurance Australia Group, Sydney, May 14, 2014,Delivered a 30-minute presentation titled: ’El Niño in a warming climate’

Media engagement (more than 60 interviews, online news, TV, radio), e.g.:

  • . The Guardian. 12 April 2023.
  • . Renew Economy. 21 February 2023.
  • . Bloomberg. 20 January 2023.
  • . The Guardian. 4 January 2023.
  • ABC News. 6 December 2022.
  • . The Guardian. 17 November 2022.
  • The Guardian. 16 November 2022.
  • . Cosmos. 14 October 2022.
  • . 7 News. 12 October 2022.
  • Cosmos Magazine. 30 September 2022.
  • . The Guardian. 13 September 2022.
  • . ABC News. August 16, 2022
  • . The Straits Times. July 11, 2022
  • . Washington Post. 5 July, 2022
  • Australian Financial Review. 5 July, 2022
  • What is the meaning of La Nina and how will the weather event affect Australia's summer? The Guardian. November 23, 2021
  • The beasts to our east: What are El Ninos and La Ninas? Sydney Morning Herald. December 29, 2020
  • . (live TV interview) January 2, 2020
  • (live TV interview)
  • CNN. June 15, 2016
  • . Financial Times. April 18, 2016
  • Weather experts warn a powerful El Nino drought and bushfire effect could be catastrophic for Australia. Daily Telegraph. August 27, 2015
  • . Channel 7 news. May 8, 2015
  • . Sydney Morning Herald.May 8, 2015
  • . International Business Times. June 16, 2014
  • Between the lines - Channel News Asia. June 13, 2014
  • .Phys Org. November 18, 2013

My Research Supervision

Sebastian McKenna

Bryam Orihuela Pinto

Shreya Dhame