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Voiceover:

Welcome to UNSW’s Engineering the Future podcast – a series where we’ll speak to academics and industry leaders who are embracing cutting-edge ideas and pushing the boundaries of what is truly possible.

In this episode, we’ll take a deep dive into exciting developments in the energy industry and discuss what impacts we can expect on society as a whole over the next two decades.

We’ll hear from leading experts in the field, Professor John Fletcher and Dani Alexander, as they explain the challenges of redesigning entire energy systems to help meet the goal of Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

They’ll also reveal the importance of longer duration and higher energy density batteries, and how the grid networks themselves need to be future-proofed to keep up with the rapidly changing ways that energy is being generated.

So join us as we discover how world-changing action starts with fearless thinking in…. “Engineering the Future of Energy”.

Neil Martin:

Hello, and welcome to Engineering The Future of Energy. My name is Neil Martin, and I'm a journalist and STEM communicator working in the Faculty of Engineering at UNSW. Joining me today to discuss the challenges of transitioning to cleaner, greener energy on a large scale in order to address climate change concerns is Professor John Fletcher, who is director of the Digital Grid Futures Institute at UNSW.

John's research has involved power electronics, electrical machine drives, renewable energy, and electric vehicles. And he has also consulted for many global industrial companies. Hello, John.

John Fletcher:

Hello, Neil.

Neil Martin:

Also with us is Dani Alexander, CEO of the UNSW Energy Institute. Dani has previously worked across a wide range of clean energy programs such as the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. And is passionate about reshaping our energy system to be clean, affordable, reliable, and equitable. Welcome, Dani.

Dani Alexander:

Thank you, Neil.

Neil Martin:

So it seems to me that when it comes to energy and decarbonisation, there is widespread agreement about what the aims and ambitions are by 2050. And that is net-zero CO2 emissions. But I guess there are some big challenges still to solve, to be able to achieve that. Such as further advancements in renewable energy technologies, improvements in storage solutions to ensure stable and reliable energy supply, increased electrification of transportation, and international cooperation to facilitate integration of global energy policie, which will hopefully help us meet those 2050 targets. John, I might come to you first. In very broad terms, in terms of the energy sector, where would you like to be in 20- or 30-years time? And how hard is it to plot a path there?

John Fletcher:

That's a great question, Neil. One of the big challenges we have to start with, is the idea of not having a plan on where we want to be. And that generates a whole host of potentially different challenges that we have to address as we create this transition from where we are today, to a much more sustainable set of energy systems. One of the things we really have to do a great job of is electrifying as much of what we do in society as we can. That then enables us to generate renewable energy and use that to replace fossil fuels, as an example. And that then requires a huge change in the way we plan and operate our network, depending on where we actually end up in the future grid. And the number, and the renewables resources that we use in order to deliver that energy. And not just the generation, but how we transmit and distribute that to all the users.

Neil Martin:

And just to clarify, when you say we, are you talking we as Australia? Or we globally? Or both?

John Fletcher:

It's both, really. And again, another challenge but a great opportunity is that every nation on the planet is trying to do really the same thing at the same time, with the same technologies and a limited set of people to deliver that.

Neil Martin:

Dani, what are the big challenges that you think need to be overcome in the next 20 or 30 years?

Dani Alexander:

From my point of view, I think as John has mentioned, we're in a period of change. And change in some cases, creates challenge, of course. So change is constant. It's scary, but it can also be good. So I'm also optimistic in this transition that faced with the challenge of redesigning our energy system, we're also offered an opportunity to do it better this time. So for example, when we look forward to 2050, we have a chance to leverage distributed energy resources. In fact, which will potentially account for about half of our generation mix. So we can use that to promote maybe a more equitable society. And that's the opportunity I see, and the challenge there.

Another challenge is that we potentially, will have more variable renewable energy sources to manage. But in that case, it also again, offers an opportunity. So when we talk about variable renewable electricity, as an example, what we mean is that there are times when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. But in fact, it also means that there are times when they're in surplus. So we have actually excess renewable electricity generation already on our system that we can use if we are able to change our system in a way. So for example, we can use that excess generation to power vehicles that are not electrified at the moment. We can use that power to manufacture green commodities and export them. So that's what I'm most excited about.

Neil Martin:

And Dani mentions there about energy mix. My understanding at the moment, and there are variable reports that come out continuously. But it seems to me that fossil fuels currently account for around about 80% of energy. And where do you think that will be in 20- or 30-years time?

John Fletcher:

Well obviously one of our hopes is that we eliminate all that fossil fuel generation, and transition to more sustainable generation techniques. So in Australia, obviously photovoltaics is going to play a big part. We will need some wind, because it's not daylight all day. We need to do that balancing act, as Dani has said. But all that said, we have had to deal with changes in demand. So the intermittency of renewables isn't a new thing that power systems have had to deal with, and that's one of the purported disadvantages of renewables. But in power systems, we've had to deal with variable demand and variable generation. So in some respects, that's not such a big issue. And with lots of energy storage, that allows us to do that balancing.

Neil Martin:

Is it realistic to say that fossil fuels would be below 30% of energy by that 2050 time, where we're talking about net-zero?

John Fletcher:

This is where one of the big challenges is. A network that maybe has 30% conventional generation, we can imagine the network running in a very similar way to how it's operated in today's network. But as we get closer to 0% conventional generation, we have to really start thinking about how we can stabilise and maintain the control of a network that has potentially millions of small generating plant distributed in the network, along with large scale solar and wind connected to our demand centres through the transmission network. So as we get to higher and higher penetrations of what we call inverter-based generation, there is the potential that we'll have to make wholesale changes to how we build and manage the network of the future.

Neil Martin:

I think a normal person in the street who doesn't have the expertise that you guys do might just think ‘oh, this is going to be easy. We just build more wind farms, we just put up some more solar panels’. How hard can that be?

Dani Alexander:

That's right. And in some ways, they're right. We do have a lot of the technologies that we need to achieve our goals. And that has been through the support over time, by governments and the private sector as well to innovate. But I think as John says, that last 10%, 20%, 30% in the transition is where we really need the invention to come through and deliver the innovation that's going to solve those problems as we reach net-zero. And yes, inverter-based resources are absolutely one. Long duration storage is another. And also the ability to make renewable molecules as well, for those energy sources that can't be electrified.

Neil Martin:

You said about storage there, and battery technology is going to be the key to that I guess. Is there a stumbling lock there at the moment, that needs to be overcome? Large grid scale batteries seem to be coming to fruition. But do they need to just be better?

John Fletcher:

Well, it's a very topical question. Because today in the media, there's a paper out talking about how much resource we're going to use to generate the huge number of batteries that we'll need. And more importantly, what are we going to do with that resource when it comes to the end of its life. Again, that presents a great opportunity to look at how we can recycle battery technologies, and not just have this one use of these really important minerals and resources that we use to make batteries. We'd obviously like to see batteries that have a much higher energy density because that then helps extend the range of electric vehicles, which is one of the anxieties that some of the public have with electric vehicles. By the same token, we also need batteries that can deliver more power. So a battery system has a rating that defines how far your vehicle can go, but also a rating that defines how fast it can go in one's power and one's energy. And getting those balances right in standard electro chemistries like lithium-ion, is an important optimisation process. So we need to be able to control and improve both the energy that a battery can store, and the power it can deliver. And that's again, one of the challenges.

Dani Alexander:

And I think it's an interesting point to talk about lithium-ion batteries and battery chemistry as well. Because I suppose in the sector, we talk about storage more broadly. And it's not always lithium-ion batteries. And there's a lot of invention or innovation happening in different storage technologies. And when we are looking or comparing those technologies against each other, we look at what they're going to be used for. So when you're talking about those very high penetrations of variable renewables, we’ll likely need very long duration storage. And that's quite topical at this point in time. Let's not talk about seven hours of storage, let's talk about seven days of storage at periods of the year where solar resource is lower. But also then, it may not actually be windy. So we may actually look at different battery chemistries or options for storage to be able to bridge that gap. And we know of quite a few inventions in that space. Say flow batteries that have the potential to be scaled up to the level that we would need for them to provide grid level storage, and be able to deliver that for multiple days, and even multiple years of providing that resource, without being degraded.

Neil Martin:

If a new battery technology did arise in the next say five to 10 years, how big a game changer could that be for the whole sector?

John Fletcher:

Certainly, if that new electric chemistry offered a step change in one of those performance indices, whether it be the stored energy density or the power it can deliver, I could imagine it’d have a huge impact. A lot of research effort is spent on lithium-ion technologies because you're already using one of the lightest atoms that you can use in a battery, that's lithium. So imagining where that step change can come from is tricky. But there have been in the previous history of many different research areas, step changes did occur. So some of that materials research becomes a really important part of trying to create that step change in battery technology.

Neil Martin:

And you mentioned just then with regards to batteries for electric vehicles, that seems to me to be one of the key things that individuals can do to change their own energy usage. And it's slowly happening now, that people are more keen to buy an electric vehicle. How important do you think that is to continue? And for that penetration to grow, and grow, and grow?

John Fletcher:

I think the electric vehicle market when it takes off, will be a fantastic boom for the industry. And as more and more households install photovoltaics, traditionally buying an energy storage unit to couple with a photovoltaic system has always been seen as a bit of a waste of money. But if you've already invested in a 70 kilowatt-hour battery in a vehicle, you've already got that capacity at home. So if we can get vehicle to grid energy transfer operational, then effectively we've got a large battery in many homes that can couple into a PV energy system. And then that, as Dani says, brings in a lot of that distributed energy resource management at the distribution level. So the electric vehicle market might solve one of those energy dilemmas that we have, and that is giving us some mechanism to balance demand in our distribution system.

Dani Alexander:

It's really interesting, because electric vehicles are very topical at the moment because of the risk that they pose say, to the electricity network. So everyone comes home. Let's say that 90% of vehicles are charged at home. You drive home, you plug in your electric vehicle. You go inside. You turn on your heater, or your air con. And all the lights, and the kettle. And then you start cooking on, of course, your induction stove. Because, we're all electric now. The poor grid operator is having a panic attack, because that's a lot of ramp that we talk about in the sector. So going from not much demand, to a lot of demand in certain locations on the grid. And how do we manage that? Now if we're a bit clever about it, if you do have your electric vehicle home, most of the time you've got solar panels generating extra energy because you are not at home. Maybe we just charge that vehicle during the day and soak up that cheap green solar. And then you don't have that load on the grid when you go out with your car at those peak hours of the day. So those are the kinds of opportunities that I think both John and I are speaking about when it's flipping that challenge into an opportunity.

Neil Martin:

And can you perceive most vehicles to be electric in 30 years’ time say?

John Fletcher:

I can see no reason why not. A lot of it depends on perceptions and experiences with using electric vehicles. Whether they're passenger vehicles, or haulage, or freight. Or just public transport. I think time will hopefully tell. But many people who have had the experience of an electric vehicle probably don't go back to using a petrol or a diesel driven vehicle, just because the experience is so much better.

Neil Martin:

And are there any details in regard to how that entire electrification of all the transport systems would benefit, in terms of this aim to get to net-zero?

John Fletcher:

Well it can contribute pretty much, a third of the decarbonisation effort that we need to go through. That transportation piece is a really important part of decarbonisation. And electrifying transportation is a fantastic opportunity for electrical networks. Because it gives them a whole new revenue stream, as well as helping to decarbonise our energy systems.

Neil Martin:

And do you think it's important as well, that it brings people in? It makes them personally responsible, and they're playing their part as well?

Dani Alexander:

I think that's a huge part in the transition that is underestimated, is the fact that people are very interested in playing their part. They want to be involved. People are already, particularly in Australia, just buying solar generators. They do it somewhat for the financials, but a lot of people do it because they care about decarbonising the energy system. And that's the untapped opportunity that I see. Is if we can also do that through transport, so electrified transport or homes, not just electrifying homes, but also making them more efficient. If we can show a clear path for people to be able to do their bit, I think most will jump on board. And in fact what they'll see is when they do jump on board, there will be a financial benefit as well. So we know a lot of people are under pressure at the moment, with cost of living rising. But when you do all of these things, when you electrify your home, when you make it more efficient, you'll also save money. And so the altruism can actually pay off too.

Neil Martin:

You talked about the networks there, that need to be improved. How easy, how hard is that going to be?

John Fletcher:

Going back to the first question, which was talking about the challenges and the different potential landing points, I think the distributing companies are the ones that are really facing the issues foremost. Because they are having to manage the integration of all these solar generators, as an example. And it's a real challenge for them because the emphasis is, let's get more generation into the network - which is good. But at the same time, we're not resourcing the distributors to the magnitude that they really need to understand how this will influence their network. And some of the mitigations that they need to install to make that happen. So that distributor narrative is really important. And it's important that we fund them to the level where they can do the work that they really need to do, to make the grid future-proof in terms of all these new technologies that will come to play their part.

Dani Alexander:

And that's an interesting part about how we are different maybe to other areas of the world, or we can lead the way. Because in Australia, we do have this higher penetration of rooftop solar than other countries. And it's leading to our distribution networks or our poles and wires that you see on the side of your street, needing to adapt more quickly than perhaps they do need to overseas. Where you have what we'd call, more of a meshed grid because they're more highly populated. But perhaps also with neighbouring countries, say in Europe, where you can share electricity. So we're leading the world in this area and it's why the innovation is so important locally here.

Neil Martin:

On a global scale, how hard is it going to be in other areas of the world? I mean, Africa for example. Developing countries, I think they're trying to grow their economies. They're trying to grow their populations, that means they need more energy. They're probably not as far down the road, in terms of renewable energies. But they're obviously contributing to that bigger picture, in terms of decarbonisation. So how hard is it going to be to bring everybody up to the same level?

Dani Alexander:

It's really important. I have some hope that there is the potential to jump step what perhaps we have done in say, Australia and move straight to those renewable sources and build those grids in the way that make the most sense for that type of generation. Similarly, if we talk about telecommunications. So skipping the landline almost, in those countries - which is a fantastic route. I mean I think some of us would love to have another shot at designing the grid from scratch, given the future that we have.

John Fletcher:

Some of these nations, they don't have a very well-developed grid to inherit. One of the challenges we have is we are inheriting a grid that's been designed and built to operate in a particular way, and that is creating a whole load of extra challenges for us in Australia. Whereas in some nations, they're really just starting to develop their energy infrastructure. In which case, they have a golden opportunity to plan and build something that is future-proof - rather than trying to adapt something to be future-proof.

Neil Martin:

It's interesting, we've done another episode on the future of cities. And they made the same point that changing existing cities, which are hundreds if not thousands of years old is way harder than just saying, we're going to build a completely new city in the desert. We can start from scratch and design it exactly how we want it to be.

John Fletcher:

It's a great point, isn't it?

Neil Martin:

You talk about electrification. Another area with regards to the decarbonisation. A lot of people seem to be talking about green hydrogen being maybe the next big thing. Do you agree that could be the case? And what impact would that have?

John Fletcher:

The hydrogen debate is really just starting, in my mind. From an electrical engineering point of view, it's an interesting technology. So my area of expertise in power conversion, we see hydrogen as being a great thing because it needs two of our power converters to function. It's a technology where you can use electrical energy to generate something that you can burn. And when you can burn things, you can use them in some of the more difficult industries and decarbonise.

Neil Martin:

Though it'd still need a lot of heat.

John Fletcher:

So there are industries that are difficult to directly electrify. Where to generate enough heat, they need to have something they can burn and hydrogen potentially gives them that possibility. So we can use electrical energy to produce a gas. We can also store the gas and ship it, if that is something that we can do both safely and economically. So again, it's a possible export market for essentially renewable energy from Australia. But there's a lot of technical and economic challenges to address, for us to get to that level of magnitude of market that we'd need to make it economically viable. So hydrogen, again, it's a technology and it looks like it's going to be a technology that we can use. But it's partly how it competes with other similar technologies that give you the same facility.

Dani Alexander:

Yeah. It's a really, really good point. Because when we look at the global market for hydrogen, at the moment, we use hydrogen a lot. So I think the stat that I have in my mind is that we have about 94 million tonnes of hydrogen that's produced annually. Now, some of that could be displaced by electrification – no doubt that's possible. But I believe that experts widely agree that some commodities require molecules, and hydrogen can support that. And the exciting part of this story, I believe in Australia is that we have the opportunity to use hydrogen to perhaps make our own green commodities. Whether that's ammonia, maybe iron steel for instance. And we can export them in that form. We're adding value to those products by manufacturing them here, which adds value to our economy. And so we can continue to be the energy powerhouse of the world in that way, as we are in some ways now.

Neil Martin:

You used the word competing I think there, John. And I'd like to pick up on that phrase. Do you think sometimes all these competing ideas, competing technologies, different ways that people think that we can get to the same end goal, does that sometimes make things harder? Because there are all these different ideas and people debating.

John Fletcher:

I wouldn't say makes it harder, it makes it more complex and challenging. Which is as a university researcher, that's what we want. We want to be able to have to answer the difficult questions. And the more competing technologies we have, the more challenging those questions become. But obviously, it gives us more opportunities. The more options we have, the better.

Neil Martin:

Dani, I think I read a piece from you recently where you talked about this energy challenge being like a decathlon. And there are all these events, there are all these ideas. But you don't need to win every single event to end up with the gold medal.

Dani Alexander:

That's right. Yeah. So we've heard in the sector it's not a sprint, it's a marathon. It's not a marathon, it's a sprint. But I do believe it's actually neither. It's a decathlon because we have a number of events that we do need to race in. And it is a race. I believe that. And we need to be pushing forward in each of those events to win the whole thing. So we don't actually need to be the front of each of those events to get the gold medal, as you said. But it is important that we are progressing all, so that we're able to decarbonise the whole economy. Because that's the big goal, it's net-zero for the whole economy.

Neil Martin:

I guess carrying on with that analogy, it's hard to focus on 10 different events. And to train for them all. And to be as good as you can be in each of those, when they're quite disparate things.

Dani Alexander:

It is. And yet we have such expertise in Australia in many, if not all of those events. And so I think the trick there is leveraging that expertise in all of those events, let's say, to use the analogy. And to trust in that and to support the innovation that's required in each of those areas. And do that in parallel, but bring folks together where it makes sense to do so, to make sure that we are working towards the same gold medal of course. And I think cross pollination of ideas is important. And for instance, I'd give the example of the New South Wales Decarbonisation Innovation Hub as a great example of a state government initiative that is trying to do just that. There is a hub focused on decarbonisation and there are networks within that hub looking at electrification and energy systems, land and primary industries, and power fuels as well. And they work side by side and have moments where they come together.

Neil Martin:

It's a good collaboration. How important is collaboration as a whole, John? Both internationally as well as nationally?

John Fletcher:

It's really important. Even in some of the more basic things that we need to do, like developing standards. Having an international forum to do that enables us to really share knowledge about some of these new technologies. For example, safety standards around hydrogen or batteries. And learning and knowledge sharing on an international basis is really important. Just so every nation has a similar set of consistent standards.

Neil Martin:

Is that happening now? Or does it need to improve?

John Fletcher:

Well certainly in some areas like battery safety, there really is a need to start coordinating on the safety aspects of some of the more popular electro chemistries and that's just one example – similarly with hydrogen. And we also see in how we standardise some of the approaches that we integrate renewables onto the network. We are beginning to see a much better standardisation of those rules and those standards.

Neil Martin:

There's a lot going on. Is there anything else that we need to take into account? That we haven't mentioned here, that you think is important?

John Fletcher:

We've spoken a lot about technologies, and that's a very STEM related aspect to the decarbonisation story. We must also recognise the important part that non-STEM subjects can play, like economics, and finance, and law, and social equity.

Neil Martin:

And how would that be? Why are they important?

John Fletcher:

Well, they are some of the fundamental things that we have to get right. So the economics and the financing of large scale developments is a really important piece, because some of these bits of infrastructure are tens of billions of dollars. And that's a difficult amount of capital to pull together for a project that has a long-term lifetime of 30 or 40 years. And those types of things are really challenging for the economic and the financiers. So that's just one example. But then you've got the social equity part that Dani talked about at the beginning. Again, that's an important part that we must not lose sight of.

Dani Alexander:

Yes. The social equity piece is really important. Because what we see in transitions theory is when you are changing, there is a risk if you don't protect people, or in this case, perhaps don't consider an equitable solution when we're transitioning the energy system, you have the risk of backlash. And that can really delay progress and that's what we cannot afford. On the flip side, when we talked at the beginning about the opportunity, the technology that we are developing at the moment actually offers new chances to have a more equitable future. So while the risk is that you can have backlash, the possibility is that your future is more equitable. Society is more equitable. But you do need those other disciplines to be playing their part as well in the work that we do, so that we can map that path towards those higher level goals.

Neil Martin:

And do you have any specific examples of how it would be more equitable?

Dani Alexander:

So an example is potentially, and John would know the technical parts of this, is these inverter based resources. So the inverters that connect your solar or batteries in your house can be used in a way to support the reliability or the stability of the grid, say for instance, providing voltage support. That's a thing that needs to be done on the grid. So what we need to do to make that happen is that we need the technology to be able to do it and in some cases, it can. But we also need the regulation and the policy in place to do that in a way that benefits many people. So, at the end of that technology solution, what we could see is that the solar and battery that people have already invested in can provide these services to the grid, which would reduce the cost of the management of that network for everyone. Neighbours, but also the grid connected individuals as a whole. So that's just one example. There are broader examples as well. But maybe that connects to people who have an inverter that's flashing on their wall, and thinking about what it could do or what more it could do.

Neil Martin:

I'm sure it's very topical, in terms of electricity bills and general energy bills being a lot lower. That seems to be a very topical point at the moment.

John Fletcher:

Yes. It sure is. Yeah.

Neil Martin:

So there's obviously a lot going on. It sounds very exciting, potential, very exciting new technologies. If you were a 16- or 17-year-old, thinking of a career in the energy sector right now, what would you be most excited about?

John Fletcher:

The most exciting thing is that we now have the opportunity and I feel, the momentum to deliver something that we should have been delivering decades ago. And that is an energy system that is much more sustainable. And I think as a global goal, being able to contribute to that is a fantastic opportunity for someone in highschool. And it's also probably going to be a career for life. So we're talking about decades worth of investment in infrastructure, design, development and that's just thinking about the engineering, which is one of my interest areas. So for a school-leaver, I think just looking at that huge opportunity must really excite them.

Dani Alexander:

Yes. And I would also say, it's engineering and. We need all types of people helping us in this energy transition. And the engineers are critical, but also other disciplines are also critical to achieving the goals that we need. So there's the nexus of energy with climate nexus, with transport, the nexus with water, and all other sectors. It all is interrelated, when you're talking about this is a system level challenge for the achievement of net-zero. And this is the point where I tell you I'm actually a microbiologist by trade, but I've been in the energy sector for my entire career. It can be done, and it can be a lot of fun as well.

Neil Martin:

And John mentioned there about all the financing that needs to be done. So there are potential people who would be going into financial study, that can obviously then use their skills to help with this big goal and ambition.

John Fletcher:

Absolutely. Finance, economics, law, creative arts. All of those different disciplines can play an important part in decarbonising society.

Neil Martin:

Well unfortunately, that's all we've got time for. Professor John Fletcher, many thanks for joining me.

John Fletcher:

Thank you.

Neil Martin:

And Dani Alexander, it was great to speak to you as well.

Dani Alexander:

Thank you.

Neil Martin:

It'll certainly be fascinating to see the transition to clean, greener energy over the next 20 years. And how the engineers of the future solve some of the problems we've discussed. Maybe some of them are tuning into this podcast right now, and being inspired. But to everyone out there, thank you for listening. I've been Neil Martin, and I hope you'll join me again soon for the next episode of Engineering The Future.

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